(Nov 17, 2009)

The planted area for 2010/11 winter grains in Russia is likely to surpass last year’s level despite persistent dryness throughout the sowing campaign. Although the drought reportedly hampered crop emergence and establishment and necessitated replanting in some fields, timely rainfall reversed the dryness and winter crops likely escaped irreversible damage in most areas.

(Nov 10, 2009)

China’s 2009/10 cotton production is estimated at 31.5 million bales (6.86 million tons), down 1.0 million or 3 percent from last month and down 5.2 million or 14 percent from last year. Area for 2009/10 is estimated at 5.2 million hectares, down 5 percent from last month and down 13 percent from last year. The revision is based on the latest cotton area estimates from Chinese government sources. Farmers reduced sown area in 2009 in response to high production costs, serious labor shortages, disappointing cotton prices, higher government subsidies for grain, and the weak global demand for textiles at the end of 2008. The estimated yield of 1319 kilograms per hectare is below the record set in 2008/09 but above the 5-year average. According to the China Cotton Association (CCA), the harvest was about 66 percent complete as of October 15. In Xinjiang, an estimated 86 percent of the crop was harvested as of November 4. Harvest progress in eastern China was slower than normal this year due to wet late-summer weather that also had a negative impact on cotton quality. The weather in October was favorably warm and dry in most cotton areas, but a strong cold front spread across eastern China at the end of the month, effectively ending the autumn growing season. The CCA said freezing temperatures and associated precipitation were unfavorable for the harvesting, drying and processing of cotton, but the impact on yield was not expected to be significant. During 2009, China’s demand for cotton has been increasing, and the situation for the textile industry has improved. Yarn output since January is up 10.4 percent, and garment and textile exports are increasing. Procurement prices are up about 4 percent from last year. (For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at (202) 690-0133 or paulette.sandene@fas.usda.gov).

(Nov 10, 2009)

Brazil’s 2009/10 soybean production is forecast at 63.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 6.0 million or 11 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 22.7 million hectares, up 0.2 million from last month and up 1.0 million from last year’s harvested area. Yield is forecast at 2.78 tons per hectare, which is above the 5-year average of 2.64 tons. Soybean area for 2009/10 is expected to increase due to higher soybean prices and greater soybean profit margins in comparison to corn. The greatest increase in soybean area is expected to occur in the southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, with farmers switching from main-season corn to soybeans. Rains arrived early in most parts of the country, which encouraged farmers to plant earlier than normal. Approximately 31 percent of the crop was planted as of October 30, which is ahead of the normal planting pace of 22 percent. Planting in Mato Grosso is approximately two weeks ahead of schedule and 68 percent complete on November 5. The main soybean planting month is November, with most planting activities completed by the end of December. More short-season varieties with lower yield potential have been planted in Parana and Mato Grosso. Short-season varieties comprised approximately 10 percent of last year’s crop in Mato Grosso, and this year short-season varieties will be approximately 25 percent of the crop. Shortseason varieties with improved yield potential are becoming more popular because they are less susceptible to rust and can be followed with second-season (safrinha) corn or cotton crops. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at (202) 690-0134 or reynolds@fas.usda.gov).

(Nov 10, 2009)

Brazil’s corn production for 2009/10 is forecast at 51.0 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and unchanged from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.83 tons per hectare, up 0.21 tons per hectare or 6 percent from last year’s drought-reduced crop in the southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Harvested area for 2009/10 is forecast at 13.3 million hectares, down 0.2 million from last month and down 0.8 million from last year. Though area is forecast to decrease from last year, production is expected to be similar because last year’s crop was severely affected by drought in the south, and more GMO seeds will be planted nationwide this year. Corn area is expected to decrease in Brazil for the 2009/10 growing season due to higher soybean prices and greater soybean profit margins in comparison to corn. The greatest decrease in corn area is expected to occur in the southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, where farmers will switch from main-season corn to soybeans due to greater anticipated soybean profits. Planting progress for main-season corn in Parana (the largest corn-producing state) and Rio Grande do Sul (the second-largest main-season corn-producing state) are 88 and 61 percent complete, respectively. Planting progress for both states is slightly less than average due to wet conditions in southern Brazil. The Brazilian Seed Association announced approximately 40 percent of this year’s main-season corn area will be planted with GMO seeds, while only 5 percent of last year’s main-season crop was planted with GMO seeds. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at (202) 690-0134 or reynolds@fas.usda.gov).

(Nov 10, 2009)

The USDA forecasts Argentine soybean production for 2009/10 at 53.0 million tons, up 1 percent from last month and up 66 percent from last year’s estimated 32.0 million tons. This brings this year’s estimated production up 28 percent from the 5-year average of 41.3 million tons. Area is estimated to reach 18.8 million hectares, up 1 percent from last month and up 18 percent from last year when drought cut harvested soybean area. Both area and production and area are forecast at record high levels.With dry weather continuing in much of Argentina, more soy will be planted as first-crop beans. Planting is expected to expand into areas where other crops were planned but not planted, but the expansion is dependant on favorable temperatures and adequate soil moisture during planting. Sunflower area estimates have been reduced; the optimum timing for sunflower planting is rapidly ending and soy may be the replacement. Continued dryness in western and central Argentina along with recent temperature extremes have not helped early planted crops and have prompted farmers to wait longer to plant the bulk of soy. It is estimated that 70 percent of cropland in Cordoba and Santa Fe has yet to be prepared for planting as farmers wait for better sowing conditions. (For additional information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, at (202) 720-0107 or Denise.McWilliams@fas.usda.gov).

(Nov 10, 2009)

The USDA forecasts Argentine sunflower output for 2009/10 at its fourth lowest level in the last 21 years. Production is forecast at 3.23 million tons, down 14 percent from last month, but up 11 percent from last year’s estimated 2.90 million tons. Area is estimated to reach only 1.90 million hectares, only 5 percent more than last year when drought cut harvested sunflower area. Unfavorable early-season weather in much of the sunflower region caused soils to dry out and has limited planted area. October rainfall was only 16 percent of normal in La Pampa, 50 percent of normal in Santa Fe, 31 percent of normal in Cordoba, 53 percent of normal in Buenos Aires, and 65 percent of normal in Entre Rios. The planting window for sunflowers is closing in northern Chaco and the optimal planting time for the crop throughout the country will end in late November. (For additional information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, (202) 720-0107 or Denise.McWilliams@fas.usda.gov).

(Nov 10, 2009)

The USDA estimates Russia wheat production for 2009/10 at 59.5 million tons, up 2.0 million or 3 percent from last month but down 4.2 million or 7 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 28.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 2.1 million from last year. Winter wheat comprises nearly half of total wheat area but nearly two-thirds of the output. Estimated wheat area for 2009/10 is the highest in nearly 30 years. Winter-wheat area reached a record 13.8 million hectares (surpassing last year’s record), and spring-wheat area increased by 1.0 million hectares. Winter grains benefited from the third consecutive year of below-normal winterkill. Despite generally favorable early-season weather, harvest reports indicate a 5-million-ton drop in wheat production in the Southern District, which typically accounts for about half of the country’s winter wheat. The low yields are due in part to hot, dry weather during June when the crop was progressing through the grain-fill stage. Output was down by about 2.5 million tons in the Volga District, where both winter and spring wheat are grown. Persistent drought destroyed a reported 3.2 million hectares of grain area, but yields from the harvested area were remarkably high considering the drought. An outstanding spring-wheat harvest in the Siberian District compensated for low output in European Russia. Yield soared to a record level and favorable October weather enabled producers to gather 98 percent of the planted area despite a slow start to the harvest campaign. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at (202) 690-0143 or lindeman@fas.usda.gov).

(Nov 10, 2009)

Kazakhstan wheat production for 2009/10 is estimated at 17.0 million tons, up 2.0 million or 13 percent from last month and up 4.5 million or 35 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 14.7 million hectares against 13.5 million last year. Yield is estimated at an above-average 1.16 tons per hectare, up 24 percent from last year. Spring wheat occupies 80 percent of the grain area in Kazakhstan, and about 75 percent of the spring wheat is grown in three territories (oblasts) in north-central Kazakhstan: Akmola, Kostanai, and North Kazakhstan. The wheat harvest was virtually complete by early October, and official reports indicate that the wheat crop made a remarkable recovery following a unpromising start. According to a senior agricultural official, total grain production reached 20 million tons, up about 30 percent from last year. North Kazakhstan oblast typically accounts for about 25 to 30 percent of the country’s wheat output, Akmola for 20 to 25 percent, and Kostanai for 25 to 30 percent. Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector has benefited from the growth of large agro-holding companies. An agroholding company typically operates as an umbrella company for numerous agricultural enterprises, providing operating capital and marketing channels for commodities produced on the individual enterprises. Agro-holding companies control over half of the grain area in Kazakhstan. Agricultural technology in Kazakhstan has shown steady improvement over the past five years as a direct result of government- subsidized prices for fuel, seed, fertilizer, and chemicals. The State pays approximately 40 percent of the cost of these materials. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at (202) 690-0143 or lindeman@fas.usda.gov).

(Nov 10, 2009)

Estimated 2009/10 rapeseed production in the European Union (EU) was raised by 0.6 million tons, to a record 21.2 million, while area was increased marginally by 0.02 million hectares. The 6.55 million hectares of rapeseed planted in the EU during 2009/10 represents a 5-percent increase from the previous season. Area has been steadily increasing as the EU moves to increase production and use of biofuels. The latest harvest reports from the big oilseed-producing nations of northern Europe indicate higher yields than previously expected. While the EU crop was already estimated at a record high, rain during podfill had an even more beneficial effect on yields than had been anticipated. Estimated production in France was raised 0.15 million tons over last month, to a record 5.55 million, and yield to a record 3.78 tons per hectare. Estimated production in Germany (the top producer in the EU) was raised almost 0.1 million tons, to a record 6.3 million, and yield to a record 4.27 tons per hectare. Polish production was increased 0.15 million tons from last month to a record 2.4 million, and the United Kingdom’s rapeseed harvest was significantly increased because the country’s spring-sown rapeseed performed much better than expected. A higher than normal amount of spring rapeseed was planted in the United Kingdom after a very wet 2008 autumn prevented winter crop plantings. The estimated crop in the United Kingdom was increased 0.14 million to 1.94 million tons. (For additional information, contact Bryan Purcell, (202) 690-0138 or bryan.purcell@fas.usda.gov).

(Nov 10, 2009)

Production of mixed grains in the EU is estimated at 15.7 million tons from 4.2 million hectares, compared to 14.8 million tons and 4.2 million hectares last year. Poland, the European Union’s largest producer of mixed grains, saw production increase by 1.0 million tons from last month to 8.8 million. This year’s yield of 3.2 tons per hectare slightly surpasses the record achieved in the 2004/05 season, a year when much of Europe saw record yields in all crops. The category of mixed grains includes both triticale and actual mixed grains (a combination of wheat, barley, rye, triticale, or oats, grown together and harvested together). In Poland, triticale has a long history. As a wheat and rye hybrid, it is ideally suited for Poland’s low winter temperatures and extensive sandy soils. Both triticale and mixed grains are included in the USDA’s mixed-grain number. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell, (202) 690-0138 or bryan.purcell@fas.usda.gov).

(Nov 10, 2009)

The USDA forecasts Canadian wheat production is forecast at 24.0 million tons, down 2 percent from last month and down 16 percent from a year ago. The slight reduction from October is due to harvest delays in harvest in the western wheat producing areas. Approximately 1.0 to 1.5 million tons of wheat, about 10 percent of the potential harvest, remained in the field as of October 31.This is the slowest harvest in five years. Farmers were unable to conduct field work due to cold weather and snow since mid-October. Both Saskatchewan and Manitoba reported harvest delays in their northern areas. Weather conditions are forecast to improve during the next week, but the possibility of harvesting the entire crop as winter approaches is diminishing. Because standing wheat can withstand wintry conditions better than other crops, yields are estimated to drop only slightly.Statistics Canada released the Field Crop Reporting Series in early October wherein wheat production was estimated to reach 24.5 million metric tons, up nearly 4 percent from their previous estimate in July. Despite unfavorably cool early-summer growing conditions, warm weather during the late summer promoted rapid development. (For more information, contact Arnella Trent at (202) 720-0881 or arnella.trent@fas.usda.gov).

(Nov 03, 2009)

Agricultural specialists from the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) traveled through several central and southeastern European countries during late August and early September to assess 2009 crop conditions. The main crops in this region include wheat, barley, corn, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed. The trip included visits to the European Union countries of the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Romania, as well as non-EU member Serbia.

(Oct 30, 2009)

Western Australia (WA) is the country's major wheat-producing state and is the country's top grain exporting state. In recent years WA has also experienced expansion in production of other field crops including rapeseed, barley, oats, and lupines. Obviously, first-hand knowledge of agricultural production operations and circumstances would greatly contribute toward improvements in our crop forecasting program.

(Oct 21, 2009)

Conditions for a portion of Ukraine's 2010/11 winter grains have been alarmingly unfavorable due to persistent dryness. Weather data and satellite imagery indicate that both surface and subsurface moisture during August and September were the lowest in recent years. Although the situation has improved following rainfall in late September and early October, the earlier dryness hampered the emergence and establishment of winter crops in significant areas of southern and eastern Ukraine. Subsurface moisture reserves remain significantly below normal.