(Feb 10, 2012)

European wheat and rapeseed may have been damaged by the recent low temperatures which occurred with little to no protective snowcover. Wheat and rapeseed in western Poland and eastern Germany are most vulnerable to potential winterkill. Extremely cold temperatures began to engulf the European continent beginning around the 30th of January. In many crop-growing regions, temperatures dropped below critical values for winterkill damage. The cold air mass started in the east over Poland and Romania and pushed into France, moderating as it tracked west. Below normal temperatures are expected to continue in the near future. It is possible that areas of widespread damage could have occurred in areas of the European wheat and rapeseed belt, but it is hard to ascertain damage at this point.

(Feb 09, 2012)

Brazil’s 2011/12 soybean production is forecast at 72 million tons, down 2 million tons from last month and down 3.5 million or 5 percent from last year. Area is forecast at a record 25 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.8 million or 3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.88 tons per hectare, down 3 percent from last month due to below-average rainfall in the south from November through January. Above-average rainfall during October gave nearly ideal planting conditions for most of Brazil. The planting pace was ahead of the 5-year average throughout the planting season, with most of the crop planted by the end of December. However, below-average rainfall in the south from November through January reduced potential yields and state crop estimating agencies for Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul reduced state production forecasts by nearly 5 million tons. Crop losses from the drought in the south will be partially compensated by above-average yields in the states of Mato Grosso, Goáis, Minas Gerais, and the northeastern states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia (or the MATOPIBA region), but overall the southern drought will reduce national output by several million tons. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0314.)

(Feb 09, 2012)

Argentina is forecasted to produce 48 million tons of soybeans, 5 percent less than last month and 2 percent less than last year, for the 2011/12 season. The production expected will be harvested from an estimated 18.6 million hectares (ha), only 1.6 percent more area than last year and 0.5 percent less area than last month. Expected yield will fall to 2.58 tons per hectare, 4 percent lower than last month and last year. Some regions affected earlier by drought have imperiled soybean yield and production. The regions hit hard; northwestern Buenos Aires, southern Cordoba and far-south Santa Fe, have suffered. Around Junín, a delegation in the province of Buenos Aires, most early-planted soy only received about 5.6 millimeters (mm), 0.34 inches, of rain from the end of November through December 20. In such areas hit by drought and heat, leaves on the soybean plants are smaller and the plant internodes are short which may limit plant branching and flower/pod set. Recent rains, however, have helped across many fields. Many fields may pull out of some of the earlier plant stress if rains continue to be timely and replenishing as the bulk of the crop goes into and finishes pollination. Late-planted soybeans will be able to take full advantage of recent good soil moisture and warm temperatures as they emerge and proceed through the vegetative stage of development. (For more information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, at 202-720-0107.)

(Feb 09, 2012)

Too little, too late rain on Argentine corn will result in limited production during this season. USDA forecasts Argentine corn production for 2011/12 at 22.0 million tons. Harvested area is estimated at 3.6 million hectares (ha), down 2.0 million hectares. Additional moisture is necessary for the crop, which is in grain fill and approaching full maturity. The yield for the crop is now estimated at 6.11 tons per ha. In their Jan. 18 monthly report, the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture estimated that possibly 20 to 50 percent of the planted corn area may be lost due to earlier dry conditions. They further estimated that only about 1 percent of the fields were in very good condition, 32 percent good, 42 percent normal and 25 percent in bad condition. Cordoba, Argentina’s second-largest corn and soybean producing province declared a drought emergency January 17, 2012. A handful of other districts in surrounding provinces have also made the declaration. Some corn fields have been cut for silage or have cattle grazing due to poor grain fill. Some stalks in areas with sandier drought prone soils have not developed ears. The early-planted corn in Argentina appears to be the most affected as high temperatures and moisture deficits hit during pollination, resulting in lower yield potential. Late-planted corn across the core area generally appears in better form but is in danger of not reaching maturity before a killing frost. (For more information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, at 202-720-0107.)

(Feb 09, 2012)

Argentine barley farmers planted additional area this season that will boost supplies. The area estimated at 1.05 million hectares is more than originally suggested by Argentine officials. This increase of 11 percent over last month’s estimation of 0.95 million hectares will supply more grain for the country. Production is now forecast at 4.0 million tons as compared to last month’s estimation of 3.3 million tons, a 21 percent increase. Yield is expected to nationally average 3.81 tons per hectare as compared to the earlier estimate at 3.47 tons, a 10 percent increase. On again off again rains during the fall establishment of barley and some dry periods during the winter result in farmers deciding to plant more barley than originally estimated. Rains during grain fill provided more assimilate to grain from barley plants that increased yield and production. (For more information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, at 202-720-0107.)

(Feb 09, 2012)

India's 2011/12 rice production is forecast at 102 million tons, up 2 percent from last month, and up 6 million or 6.3 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 45.2 million hectares, up 0.4 percent from last month, and up 5.9 percent from last year. Paddy yield is forecast at a record 3.39 tons per hectare, up 1.5 percent from last month and 0.4 percent from last year. The major factors shaping the current crop outlook include the better-than-expected Kharif rice production. Favorable 2011 monsoon rains coupled with overall weather conditions in the major rice growing areas supported higher kharif rice acreage (3.0 million hectare above last year) and productivity leading to a record rice production as reflected by strong market arrivals of kharif paddy. According to the recent Government of India’s estimate report the Kharif rice production is now estimated at 87 million tons, a significantly larger crop than previously forecasted. In addition, the Rabi rice crop is now forecast at approximately 15 million tons based on encouraging Rabi rice sowing progress reports. The Kharif rice harvesting is almost complete in most regions especially in the north and south peninsular regions. The Kharif rice crop represents approximately 85% the total India rice production, and early planting is normally in March-May and is harvested in June-October. Late Kharif planting is in June-October and the crop is harvested in November-February. The major Kharif rice producing states are Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. The Rabi rice crop accounts for 15 percent of total India rice production. The crop is planted in November-February and harvested in March-June. The major Rabi rice producing states are West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Karnataka, Assam, and Tamil Nadu. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339.)

(Feb 09, 2012)

The USDA estimates Pakistan’s 2011/12 cotton production at 10.4 million bales (480-pound bales), a 4 percent increase from last month and up 18 percent from last year. If achieved this will be the second largest harvest on record. Area harvested is estimated at 3.2 million hectares, the same as last month, and up 10 percent from last year. The yield is estimated at 708 kg/ha, up 4 percent from last month, and up 7 percent from last year.Cotton harvest in Pakistan is almost complete. According to the Pakistan Cotton Ginner’s Association (PCGA) cumulative seed cotton arrivals at factories show significant improvement compared to the same time in the last two years. At the end of January consolidated cotton arrivals at ginning factories were estimated at approximately 10 million bales, 23 percent higher than the same period last year. There is wide consensus that a significant quantity of cotton is still left with growers, raising prospects that the season’s output will be in excess of the previous estimate of 10 million bales. Historic averages of seed cotton arrivals for the remainder of season (February-May) tend to be around 400,000 bales, which is the basis of the current projection of the final estimate. The major cotton regions of Punjab and upper Sindh experienced favorable conditions during peak vegetative and maturity stages. Favorable monsoon rainfall was reported throughout the season in Punjab province. Sindh province received heavier-than-normal and persistent rains from mid-August to mid-September. General observations and analysis indicated that flooding occurred in a few provincial districts in southeast Sindh including Sanghar, Mirpurkhas, Umarkot, and Badin. The northern Sindh districts were least affected. In contrast, the torrential rains did not cause significant flooding in Punjab province, and in most areas was actually beneficial to maturing cotton and rice crops resulting in above-average crop performance and yields. (For more information, contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202720-7339.)

(Jan 12, 2012)

Brazil’s 2011/12 soybean production is forecast at 74 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and down 1.5 million or 2 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.96 tons per hectare, down 1 percent from last month due to below-average rainfall in the south during November and December. Area is forecast at a record 25 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.8 million or 3 percent from last year. The planting pace was ahead of the 5-year average throughout the planting season, with most of the crop planted by the end of December.Above-average rainfall during October gave nearly ideal planting conditions for most of Brazil. However, below-average rainfall in the south during December reduced potential yields, especially in regions that were planted early where crop stage was in the critical flowering and pod-filling stages during December’s drought.Harvesting started this month in Parana, the second-largest soybean producing state, which reported below-average yields in the early-planted regions located in the western and southwestern portions of the state. DERAL, the state crop estimating agency for Parana, also reduced their soybean production forecast this month by 1.4 million tons (from 14.1 to 12.7 MT) due to December’s drought and low reported harvested yields in western Parana. In contrast, seasonal rainfall was beneficial in central and northeastern parts of Brazil. Mato Grosso, the largest soybean producing state in the central west, is expecting a record soybean harvest of 22.2 million tons and above last year’s record crop of 20.4 million tons. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds, PhD, at 202-690-0134.)

(Jan 12, 2012)

The USDA estimates 2011/12 India cotton production at a record 27.0 million bales (480-pound bales), down 2 percent from last month, but up 1.6 million or 6 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 12.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 10 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 482 kilograms per hectare, down 2 percent from last month and down 3 percent from last year.The 2011 monsoon season started at a relatively slow rate in May, but conditions improved significantly in July and August. Despite a slow start to the season, favorable planting conditions in July and August extended the planting window and boosted plantings in all major growing areas. Rainfall throughout the season progressed well and provided favorable conditions for crop growth and development. The ideal planting conditions, high domestic prices, and anticipated export demand encouraged record cotton plantings in the major growing areas of Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. But in some areas, especially Maharashtra, observers are concerned about possible yield reductions caused by below-normal rainfall at the beginning of the planting season and limited irrigation supplies in the areas that typically rely on supplemental irrigation.Seed cotton arrivals from November through early January are averaging 25 percent lower than last year. The largest shortfalls, at approximately 40 percent less than the same time last year, are in Maharashtra, the state that contributes about 20 percent of national production. The delayed start to the harvest campaign and farmer holding (anticipating higher prices) are the primary suspects for the low arrivals, but lower yields may be a significant contributing factor as well. (For more information, contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202-720-7339.)

(Jan 12, 2012)

The USDA forecasts Argentine corn production for 2011/2012 at 26.0 million tons, down 3.0 million from last month but up 3.5 million from last year. Area is estimated at 3.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.2 million from last year. Yield is estimated at 6.84 tons per hectare (t/ha), up 9 percent from last year. During December, several locations in Argentina’s key corn-production region reported sporadic high temperatures above 38 degrees Celsius, (100 degrees Fahrenheit), resulting in moisture stress for some of the corn. About half of the early corn was entering the silking and tasseling stages – the stages most susceptible to drought. The corn in the northwest region of Buenos Aires, the southeast region of Cordoba, and the far southern region of Santa Fe has taken the brunt of the damage. Only scattered or very light rain (less than one-half inch) fell last week near the towns of Colonia, Almada, and Hernando in the province of Cordoba, while elsewhere in much of this southern region of the province no rain has been recorded. In Buenos Aires, the regions around the towns of Pergamino, Rojas and Salto have received less than 10 mm (less than one-half inch) with temperatures well above 100 degrees Fahrenheit. In the regions of Junín, Villegas (Pergamino) in Buenos Aires province and around María Teresa and Labordeboy in the province of Sante Fe, the crop has been under heat stress for several weeks. Some specialist suggest from 4 to 7 inches of rain will be necessary to replenish soil moisture and relieve plant stress for continued crop progress. In some sandy fields with severe damage, farmers are harvesting hay or directly grazing the corn crop. (For additional information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams at 202-720-0107.)

(Jan 12, 2012)

The USDA estimates Russia sunflowerseed production for 2011/12 at a record 9.6 million tons, up 0.8 million or 9 percent from last month and up 4.3 million or 79 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at a record 7.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 1.7 million from last year, when severe drought resulted in an unusually high rate of abandonment. Yield is estimated at 1.32 tons per hectare, up 38 percent from last year and up 18 percent from the 5-year average. The estimated yield, while not actually a record for Russia, is the highest of the post-Soviet era. (Official data indicates sunseed yield at 1.48 tons per hectare in 1989/90.) The month-to-month increase is based on a December 28 report from the Ministry of Agriculture citing sunseed output at 9.6 million tons. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)

(Dec 14, 2011)

Establishment conditions for Ukraine's 2012/13 winter crops have been unusually and persistently dry. Although the dryness did not impede planting progress, surface soil moisture in most regions of the country was insufficient for proper crop establishment and officials report that about one-third of the county's winter grains are entering the winter in weak condition. Winter grains comprise about half of total grain area and production in Ukraine. According to a November 21 planting report from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, winter grains for 2012/13 were sown on 8.05 million hectares (against 8.33 million for 2011/12), including 6.50 (6.55) million wheat, 0.33 (0.29) million rye, and 1.22 (1.25) million barley. Planting proceeded rapidly, virtually matching last year's pace, and was complete by early November.

(Dec 13, 2011)

Rice is the staple foodgrain produced in Laos, with greater than 60 percent of all agricultural land devoted to its cultivation. However, Laos has serious limits to its ability to expand future production, given it has the smallest amount of arable land (4% of total national area) of any country in Southeast Asia. Despite the inherent shortage of arable land, Laotian farmers have made great progress during the past decade in improving average rice yields and modestly expanding crop area, leading to significantly higher national production. Official government statistics indicate that the country first achieved rice self-sufficiency in 1999 and that total rice production increased an additional 36 percent between 2000-2010.