(May 09, 2008)

Syria, like its neighbor Iraq, has been experiencing a serious drought during the past 8 months. Drought stress in 2008/09, which was exacerbated by abnormally hot spring temperatures, is expected to cause significant losses to the nations winter grain crops.

(May 09, 2008)

Iraq has been experiencing one of the worst droughts in the past 10 years, with total wheat and barley production in 2008/09 expected to decline 51 percent compared to last year.

(May 09, 2008)

Iran had experienced a more favorable early season rainfall situation than its drought-plagued neighbors of Iraq and Syria, but conditions rapidly deteriorated in February, March, and April 2008.

(May 09, 2008)

Paraguay soybean production is estimated at 6.8 million tons this month for 2007/08, down 0.2 million based on a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service’s Office of Agricultural Affairs based in Buenos Aires. Area harvested is estimated at 2.6 million hectares, down 0.2 million from last month, while yield is estimated at 2.62 tons per hectare, up 5 percent. The crop faired well during the growing season, but area was not as high as previous estimates. High yields occurred in northern growing areas due to good rains during the season. Post contacts reported that there were earlier problems with soybean rust, but that it was controlled. (For more information, contact Denise McWilliams at 202-720-0107.)

(May 09, 2008)

World oilseed production for 2008/09 is forecast at 423 million tons, up 32 million tons from 2007/08. Despite high prices for inputs such as diesel fuel and fertilizers, the high oilseed prices are providing incentive to plant, especially in countries that have seen a weakening in their currencies. Total U.S. oilseed production is forecast at 93 million tons, up 13 million, and total foreign production is forecast at 329 million tons, up 19 million. (For more information, contact Paul Provance at 202-720-0873.)

(May 09, 2008)

China’s 2008/09 cotton production is forecast at 35.5 million bales (7.73 million tons), down 0.3 million or less than 1 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 6.0 million hectares, down 0.2 million from a year ago. The yield is forecast at 1288 kilograms per hectare, down slightly from last year but equal to the record set in 2006/07. Planting surveys suggest a small decline in planted area for 2008/09 for several reasons, including the high cost of labor and production materials (such as fuel, plastic sheeting, and fertilizer), rapidly rising prices for competing crops, government incentives for grain production, and slow cotton sales. Planted area in Xinjiang, China’s most important cotton province, is expected to be stable or slightly lower than last year. Cotton planting began in early April in most production areas and is nearly complete. Widespread rainfall and mild temperatures in April have helped get the 2008 crop off to an excellent start. Recent stormy weather in Xinjiang province will necessitate some replanting. (For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133.)

(May 09, 2008)

China’s 2008/09 rice crop is forecast at 130.9 million tons (187.0 rough basis), up 1.4 million from last year. This is fourth consecutive year of increased rice production in China. The forecast area of 29.8 million hectares is up 0.2 million from last year. Higher planted area for early and late rice is expected to offset expected area declines of single crop rice in Northeast China, where prices had dropped following record crops in 2006 and 2007. The forecast yield of 6.275 tons per hectare (rough basis) is the highest since 2004/05 and is close to the 10-year trend. Transplanting should be nearly complete for the early rice crop in southern China, while planting has started for the single rice crop in the northeast and central China. Rainfall and temperatures have been generally favorable for fieldwork and early development this year. There had been concern that spring drought in both southwest and northeast China would inhibit normal planting and emergence, but widespread rain in April eased the drought and improved soil moisture levels. (For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133.)

(May 09, 2008)

Brazil’s corn production for 2007/08 is forecast at a record 56.0 million tons, up 3.0 million from last month, and up 5.0 million from last year’s record. Harvested corn area for 2007/08 is forecast at a record 14.5 million hectares and up 0.5 million from last year’s record area. Yield is forecast at a record 3.86 tons per hectare, up 5 percent from last month and up 6 percent from last year’s record of 3.64 tons per hectare. Brazil’s largest summer corn producing states are Parana, Minas Gerais, and Rio Grande do Sul. Reported summer-corn yields were aboveaverage in Parana and Minas Gerais, but yields in Rio Grande do Sul were below last year due to a short drought during February. Summer corn harvest is nearly complete and total summer output is expected to be nearly 39 million tons, or approximately 70 percent of the total crop. Winter corn accounts for the remaining 30 percent, with Mato Grosso and Parana each producing approximately one-third of the winter crop. Winter yields also are expected to be above-average in both Mato Grosso and Parana due to favorable rains, especially during April when the winter crop was in the grain-filling stage. High corn prices encouraged producers to plant larger summer and winter (safrinha) corn crops, with winter corn area increasing by 7 percent from last year. A similar increase in winter corn area is expected next year if corn prices continue to remain high. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)

(May 09, 2008)

South Africa’s 2007/08 corn production is forecast at 11.5 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month and up 4.2 million from last year. Area is forecast at 3.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.3 million or 10 percent from last year. The estimated yield of 3.59 tons per hectare is above the 5-year average and 10-year trend yield of 3.00 and 3.32 tons per hectare, respectively.Seasonal spring rains were timely and abundant during the planting season from October through December and generally enabled farmers to plant at optimal dates. High corn prices and a La Niña forecast encouraged farmers to increase planted area and boost fertilizer application this year. Yields currently are forecast above the 10-year trend due to timely and well-distributed rainfall, optimal planting dates, large irrigated area, and high investment in fertilizers and hybrid seeds. Harvest is underway and will be completed by the end of July. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)

(May 09, 2008)

USDA forecasts Romanian corn production to recover from the drought-reduced harvest of 2007/08. Output for 2008/09 is forecast at 8.0 million tons, up 4.1 million tons or 104 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 2.7 million hectares, up 0.1 million hectares or 5 percent. Because of the favorable weather so far this season, yield is expected to return to an average level of 3.0 tons per hectare, nearly twice last year’s level. Corn is currently being planted, and final area will hinge in part on the current high prices for fertilizer and the high return for sunflowers this season, which may encourage farmers to substitute sunflowers for corn. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)

(May 09, 2008)

The USDA estimates Russia corn production for 2008/09 at 5.3 million tons, up 1.4 million or 34 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 1.4 million hectares, up slightly from last year. The year-to-year increase in estimated output is attributed to a forecast rebound in yield from last year, when July temperatures soared as the corn crop was advancing through the heatsensitive reproductive stage of development. Weather-related yield reductions notwithstanding, the use of hybrid planting seed has contributed a steady increase in potential corn yield since 2001. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)

(May 09, 2008)

USDA forecasts the 2008/09 Northwest Africa (NWA) wheat crop at 7.3 million tons, 1.9 million or 35 percent above last year’s estimate, but 1.1 million or 13 percent below the five-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 5.3 million hectares, 0.2 million above last year. Yield is estimated at 1.39 tons per hectare, 30 percent higher than last year’s very poor harvest, but still below the 1.45 tons/ha average. Morocco’s 2008/09 wheat production is forecast at 3.5 million tons, up 121 percent from last year’s 1.6 million ton crop, but 20 percent below the 5-year average. Algeria’s wheat crop is forecast at 2.6 million tons, matching 2007/08 output, and Tunisia’s crop is forecast at 1.2 million tons, the same level as last year.On average, Morocco is the largest grain producer in Northwest Africa, contributing about half of the three-nation wheat crop. Morocco’s southern and central region is a large swing area for wheat production. This area averages lower rainfall and has lower average productivity, but during years with increased precipitation, yields are high. Algeria’s arable land extends along a narrow belt just south of the Mediterranean Coast. Precipitation is typically not subject to extreme fluctuation, resulting in more consistent wheat production. Tunisia received considerable autumn and winter precipitation but it was concentrated on the extreme northern coast and did not extend into the country’s central crop region. Both Algeria and Tunisia have seen their precipitation levels dwindle during spring, reducing yield prospects. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)

(May 09, 2008)

Total wheat production in the Middle East in 2008/09 is estimated at 34.9 million tons, down 4.9 million from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 18.1 million hectares, down 9 percent from last year, while yield is expected to decline by 4 percent to 1.93 tons per hectare. Winter-grain conditions in much of the Middle East are significantly worse than last year because of prolonged drought. Very high temperatures (30 to 35 degrees Celsius) in March and April exacerbated the moisture stress crops were experiencing as they proceeded through critical yield formation growth stages. Rainfall at planting time was almost non-existent in much of Iraq and Syria, causing major declines in rain-fed crop area. Northern Iraq and northeastern Syria could be categorized as agricultural disasters, with near-total grain losses. Meanwhile, in regions which did receive early season rainfall and had normal crop establishment (Turkey, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan), severe drought conditions developed during the winter and early spring, eventually engulfing most of the Middle East’s primary wheat producing areas.Satellite imagery from January provided early indications of substantial problems in key rain-fed wheat growing areas in Iraq and Syria, and current vegetation-index analysis clearly indicates severe drought conditions and poor to non-existent crop vegetation on a large scale throughout the Middle East. The worst affected countries are Syria, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon. Iran and Turkey received beneficial early-season rainfall and are less severely affected at this time, but conditions in both countries have been rapidly deteriorating. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)

(Apr 15, 2008)

FAS-Washington and Brasilia personnel performed a crop assessment tour from February 15-March 5, 2008 in southern and center-west Brazil, as indicated in Figure 1, and the survey team transected the main grain and soybean belts in Mato Grosso and Parana states. Many producers were beginning to plant the second or safrinha crop in both Mato Grosso and Parana states where double-cropping is possible.