Global commodity production, area and yield estimates <br> for Grains, Oilseeds and Cotton. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/ Wed, Nov 01 2006 14:38:07 Wed, Nov 01 2006 14:38:07 http://www.fas.usda.gov/pecad/images/2005_h1.png http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/ PECAD - Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division 62 72 The planting season is ending for China's 2007/08 winter wheat crop, which was sown in September and October 2006 and will be harvested in May and June 2007. Mostly dry and warm weather allowed for rapid planting progress, but soil moisture levels in the main production areas are low and additional rain would help promote emergence and tillering before the crop enters dormancy in December. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/10/ch_30oct2006/index.htm Nov 01, 2006 As dryness continued from early wheat planting in May until the early growth stages in September, Argentina's 06/07 wheat crop outlook was dire. Earlier this season, dryness hampered planting progress, such that planting intentions were decreased in July, August, and September in reports published by Argentina's Ministry of Agriculture (SAGPyA). http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/10/Argentina_27Oct2006 Oct 27, 2006 Bulgaria's 2006/07 sunflower crop is estimated to reach both record production and record area, while corn production is estimated to be down slightly from last year. Both of these spring-sown crops saw mixed results because of variable summer weather. Harvested winter wheat and winter barley are estimated to be at or below last year?s production level because of winterkill and spring flooding. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/10/Bulgaria_25oct2006 Oct 26, 2006 As of October 16, farmers in Ukraine had planted 6.63 million hectares of winter grains for 2007/08, against 5.2 million by the same date last year and approximately 7.2 million in 2003 and 2004. The figure includes 5.6 million hectares of wheat, 0.36 million rye, and 0.44 million barley. The fall sowing campaign is nearly complete; agricultural officials forecast total 2007/08 winter grain area at 7.06 million hectares, compared to final sown area of 6.06 million for 2006/07. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/10/ukr_20oct2006 Oct 23, 2006 USDA's October estimate for South Africa's 2006/07 wheat production is 2.19 million tons, up 140,000 tons from last month and up 304,000 from last year. Wheat area is estimated at 770,000 hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 30,000 hectares from last year. Record wheat yields of 2.84 tons per hectare are forecasted due to good seasonal rainfall in the major wheat regions of Free State and Western Cape provinces, but total wheat production will again fall short of domestic demand (see Figure 1). South Africa's wheat crop is planted in May/June and will be harvested in November/December. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/10/saf_19oct06 Oct 19, 2006 Hungary's 2006/07 grain output is estimated by USDA to be lower than both the 2004/05 record and the 2005/06 bumper harvests. Detrimental winter and early spring weather lowered yields of autumn-sown crops but the principle summer crops of corn and sunflowerseed are expected to have done well, with sunflowerseed estimated at record production this season. Weather was nearly ideal in September and by the beginning of October about 65 percent of sunflowerseed crop had been harvested and 6-7 percent of the corn crop had been harvested. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/09/Hungary0906 Oct 13, 2006 Winter crop yields in France have fallen during the course of the growing season. High expectations were lowered by a long winter, a short spring, and a very hot, early summer. These events stressed crops, reduced the size and weight of their grain and seeds, and lowered yield. Crop travel in the corn region of southwest France revealed good yields, but lower planted area. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/09/France092806 Sep 27, 2006 Ethiopia has appealed for millions of dollars in emergency relief for the country's worst flooding in decades as hundreds of people have been killed and tens of thousands left homeless caused by flash floods along the Omo, Awash, and Blue Nile rivers. Floods are relatively common in Ethiopia from June to September when rains peak during the main rainy season, but this year the country has experienced some of the heaviest and most intense rains on record during August. Forecasters warn that the country faces further flood threats as dams are filled and rains are expected to continue until the end of the wet season in September. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/09/eth_19sep2006/ Sep 19, 2006 Unusually hot and dry weather has caused drought conditions to develop in the Sichuan Basin (Chongqing Municipality and Sichuan province). According to local sources, more than 1.3 million hectares of farmland suffers from drought as of August 16, and more than 280,000 hectares have been destroyed. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/08/china_17aug2006 Aug 23, 2006 The USDA August 2006/07 estimate for Russia sunflowerseed production is 6.5 million tons, roughly matching last year's level. Corn production is estimated at 3.6 million tons, up 0.4 million from last year. Russia's Southern District, which accounts for roughly 60 percent of the country's sunflowerseed output and 80 to 90 percent of the corn, has been marked by persistent heat during the past two weeks. Temperatures were high in eastern Ukraine as well, which is another key corn and sunflowerseed region. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/08/russia_15aug2006 Aug 17, 2006 The USDA July currently forecasts an increase in production of Canada's 2006/07 rapeseed crop to 8.10 million tons, up from 7.60 million tons last month, but down from last year's record production. While yield has remained unchanged from last month, estimated production has increased due to an increase in planted area. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/07/Canada_17July2006 Jul 25, 2006 Dry conditions throughout Australia's grain growing regions have reduced production potential of the 2006/07 wheat crop. Production is forecast to decrease from last year due to a revised lower area. Area is forecast lower this season, as a result of inadequate rainfall during the Australian summer and fall seasons thereby limiting sown area and crop establishment. Significant area reductions are anticipated in all states, most appreciably in Western Australia (WA). http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/07/australia_17jul2006_wheat Jul 17, 2006 Dry conditions throughout Australia's grain growing regions have reduced production potential of the 2006/07 rapeseed crop. Production is lower due to a forecast lower area. Area is forecast to decrease from last year, as a result of inadequate rainfall during the important weeks leading up to the optimal rapeseed planting period. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/07/australia_17jul2006_canola Jul 17, 2006 Widespread rainfall since June 1 has essentially ended a serious drought that covered a large section of Northeast China (Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning) this spring. Seasonal rainfall (March 1 - June 20) is now above normal and soil moisture levels are very favorable for heading spring wheat and vegetative corn, soybeans, and rice. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/06/china_26jun2006 Jun 28, 2006 The total European Union (EU) 2006/07 rapeseed production is forecast at 15.3 million tons, similar (within 0.1 million tons) to each of the last two year's production levels. Area, however, continues increasing each year due to the burgeoning demand for biodiesel within the EU. The 2006/07 harvested area is estimated at 5.0 million hectares, up 0.5 million hectares in two years. Yield is expected to fall to 3.09 tons per hectare, down from 3.26 tons per hectare last year and 3.41 tons per hectare in the record 2004/05 year. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/06/europe_20_june_2006 Jun 21, 2006 USDA's June estimate for China's 2006/07 wheat crop is 97.5 million tons, unchanged from last month and slightly higher than last year's revised crop of 97.45 million tons. Winter wheat production is forecast at 92.0 million tons, unchanged from last year. Total wheat area was revised upward this month to 23.1 million hectares based on information from Chinese government sources. The weather in May was generally favorable for winter wheat development across the North China Plain. Timely showers at the end of the month brought needed moisture to the Yellow River basin, where the reproducing/filling crop had been stressed by spring drought. Meanwhile, near-normal rainfall and temperatures in May benefited the filling/maturing crop in the Yangtze and Huai river basins. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/06/china_13jun2006/ Jun 14, 2006 In just a month, the value of the Brazilian real has fallen by 8 percent against the dollar, where 1 U.S. dollar was equal to R$2.06 reals and is now valued at R$2.23 reals (Brazil Central Bank rate for June 6). This is seen as benefiting Brazil since, over the past two years, the opposite trend had been occurring where the real had been appreciating making Brazilian exports less competitive, at the same time increasing their cost of inputs such as fertilizer and fuel, resulting in reduced crop profitability. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/06/brazil_09jun2006 Jun 09, 2006 The USDA May estimate for 2006/07 Russia wheat production is 42.0 million tons, against 47.7 million last year. Specialists from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) traveled to Russia's key Southern District in late April to examine winter wheat conditions and to meet with local agricultural officials, grain producers, and independent commodity analysts. The team observed crops to be in good condition in Krasnodar and southern Rostov territories, with little apparent frost damage resulting from low January temperatures. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/05/rs_25may2006 May 30, 2006 Analysts from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) traveled through central, southern, and eastern Ukraine in April to examine winter crop conditions and spring planting progress. The team met with agricultural officials and independent commodity analysts in Kiev and conducted farm visits throughout the major production regions for winter wheat, winter barley, spring barley, corn, and sunflower seed. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/05/ukr_wheat_16may2006 May 18, 2006 South Africa's Maize Triangle received above-average rainfall during January, February, and March which followed typical La Nina patterns for the southern Africa region. In addition, March's temperatures were well below-average which reduced heat units and slowed crop development in the grain-filling stages. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/05/southafrica_corn_may06 May 02, 2006 Given the overall fair to excellent state of Argentina's soybean crop, as witnessed by USDA Foreign Agricultural Agency (FAS) analysts during a crop tour in Santa Fe, Cordoba, and Buenos Aires, USDA's April estimate for Argentina's 2005/06 soybean production is a record 40.5 million tons, unchanged from last month. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/04/Argentina_Oilseeds_26Apr06 Apr 26, 2006 Argentina's 2005/06 corn crop is highly variable, with much corn in poor to fair condition, and a lesser amount in good to excellent condition, as witnessed during a crop tour of Argentina's agricultural heartland by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) analysts in early March 2006. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/04/argentina_corn_26apr06 Apr 26, 2006 China's 2006/07 winter wheat crop is progressing normally. It is now in the jointing stage in the Yellow River basin and in the boot/flowering stage in the southern part of the North China Plain. Temperatures have been generally warmer than normal since January, which caused the crops to emerge from dormancy ahead of schedule and develop rapidly in early spring. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/04/china_18apr2006 Apr 20, 2006 Autumn-planted crops are expected to have over-wintered well in Europe. While some questions remain about the effects from a colder than normal winter, initial analysis suggests that the vast majority of winter crops, especially hardy winter wheat, should have survived without damage from the cold and sometimes bitter cold that infiltrated eastern and central areas of the continent. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/03/europe_30mar2006 Mar 31, 2006 Fall and winter weather has been generally unfavorable for 2006/07 winter crops in Russia's key production zones, especially in the Southern and Volga Districts. Fall dryness delayed planting and hampered crop emergence and establishment, and severe January frosts destroyed winter wheat plantings in areas where shallow or patchy snow cover failed to provide adequate protection from the cold (see January 25 and February 10 articles). February ushered in a new threat: the likely formation of localized but potentially damaging ice crusts in parts of Russia's prime winter wheat region. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/03/russia_28mar2006 Mar 27, 2006 Maximum-category five Cyclone Larry, packing winds of up to 180 mph, ripped through northern Queensland about 7:00 am on Monday, March 20. Hardest hit was the sugar-growing town of Innisfail, a farming city of 8,500 people 60 miles south of the tourist city of Cairns in northeastern Queensland state. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/03/australia_23mar2006 Mar 24, 2006 The ongoing hot and dry conditions currently affecting India's agriculture regions are lowering production potential. From modern wheat production areas of northwest India (see article: Excessive Heat Stresses Wheat Crop) to northeastern regions marked by indigenous agricultural practices, below normal precipitation and high temperatures are wreaking havoc. Intense fires in the northeast state of Mizoram are being monitored by FAS with satellite imagery. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/03/india_13mar2006 Mar 16, 2006 The ongoing hot and dry conditions currently affecting India's agriculture regions are lowering production potential. From modern wheat production areas of northwest India (see article: Excessive Heat Stresses Wheat Crop) to northeastern regions marked by indigenous agricultural practices, below normal precipitation and high temperatures are wreaking havoc. Intense fires in the northeast state of Mizoram are being monitored by FAS with satellite imagery. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/03/india_13mar2006 Mar 16, 2006 Harvest operations for major summer grain and oilseed crops are underway across Brazil, and will pick up pace substantially in March and early April. By all accounts the 2005/06 crop year has been a difficult one in which low commodity prices, increased production costs, and low potential profitability led to widespread reductions in crop area devoted to soybeans, rice, and cotton. Variable rainfall during the growing season also negatively affected soybean and corn crops in several southern states. However, as most summer crops enter their final maturation growth stages, crop yield outlook on the whole is generally positive, though returns for major crops like soybeans and rice are below the costs incurred by producers in many areas. Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) analysts traveled through important agricultural regions in Brazil during January and February, encompassing the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Parana, Mato Grosso, Para, Maranhao, and Piuai. These states collectively account for 66 percent of national soybean production, 54 percent summer corn, 85 percent rice, and 50 percent of the cotton crop. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/03/brazil_10mar2006 Mar 10, 2006 Prospects for the 2006/07 winter grain season in India were mostly positive until the recent heat wave. Typically early February marks the start of the gradual rise of daytime temperatures until May when temperatures peak for the season. However, this year not only did temperatures begin to increase in early January they rose 3 to 7 degrees above normal by mid-February in the major wheat growing regions of India. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/02/india_21feb2006 Feb 27, 2006 Weather has been beneficial for the 2006/07 winter grains crop in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. The two dominant grain crops in the three-country northwest Africa region are wheat and barley. Both crops appear to be well established in all three countries. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/02/nwafrica_22feb2006 Feb 22, 2006 USDA's 2005/06 February estimate for Argentina corn production has been decreased to 15.5 million tons, down from 16.8 million last month, and down from last year's record of 19.5 million. While yields have generally increased since the early 1990's, the particularly inopportune weather during the vulnerable stage of tasselling this year, specifically the significant dryness in December and extremely high temperatures in January, have significantly damaged the corn crop and reduced yield forecasts. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/02/ar_corn_15feb2006 Feb 22, 2006 Many factors influence farmers' decisions at planting time. Cotton prices, prices of competing crops and government programs play an important role in determining area planted to cotton. The Cotlook A-Index provides a good indication of the direction of world prices. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/02/foreigncotton_09feb2006 Feb 09, 2006 A combination of low temperatures and shallow, patchy snow cover likely resulted in frost damage to 2006/07 winter wheat in eastern Ukraine between January 17 and January 19. Weather data indicate that damage was limited to three territories (oblasts) in far eastern Ukraine: Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk. These oblasts together account for about 20 percent of Ukraine's winter wheat area. The frost threat was more extensive in the Southern and Volga Districts of European Russia, where up to 40 percent of the winter wheat was subject to potentially damaging conditions. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/02/ukr_09feb2006 Feb 09, 2006 Winter wheat accounts for more than 90 percent of China's total wheat output. The 2006/07 winter wheat crop was planted in September/October 2005 and will be harvested in May/June 2006. Widespread heavy rain from mid-August through the first week of October covered most winter wheat areas of the North China Plain (NCP), where more than 70 percent of the crop is grown. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/01/china_27jan2006 Jan 27, 2006 Late monsoon rainfall combined with favorable prices have resulted in a record sown area for 2005/06 India rapeseed. Harvested area is forecast at 7.2 million hectares and yield, similar to the past three season, at 0.94 tons per hectare. Production is forecast at 6.8 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month and up 0.3 million from last year. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/01/india_21jan2006 Jan 26, 2006 A brief episode of bitterly cold weather between January 16 and January 20 likely resulted in damage to winter wheat in parts of the Volga, Central, and Southern Districts. Minimum temperatures dropped below -30 degrees Celsius for two to three consecutive days in some areas, and ranged from -22 to -30 degrees throughout southern Russia. Although persistent fall dryness delayed winter-grain planting and hampered crop establishment (see December 15 report), winter crops in Russia were fully dormant when the cold weather arrived and were protected in many areas by adequate insulating snow cover. But in regions of sustained low temperatures with thin or patchy snow -- which includes parts of the prime winter-wheat territories of Saratov and Volgograd -- soil temperatures likely dropped to levels low enough to cause damage to dormant winter crops. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/01/russia_24jan2006 Jan 25, 2006 Overall, the 2006/07 winter crops in Europe were successfully planted under good conditions. The late planting is the result of a rain-delayed summer harvest. Some areas of eastern Europe planted grains after the optimal planting window, increasing risk potential. A mild fall throughout the continent helped accelerate sowings and plant emergence, and in some cases resulted in an over-development of the new crop. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/01/eu_19jan2006 Jan 19, 2006 Sown winter-grain area for 2006/07 dropped by nearly 20 percent from last year in Ukraine. The reduction in area is attributed chiefly to persistent fall dryness that also hampered winter-crop emergence and establishment. According to preliminary data from the State Statistical Committee, winter grains were planted on 6.06 million hectares (against 7.46 million last year), including 5.14 (6.32) million wheat, 0.54 (0.48) million barley, and 0.38 (0.66) million rye. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/01/ukr_13jan2006/ Jan 13, 2006 Planting operations for the 2005/06 soybean growing season in Brazil came to an end in late December, with virtually all areas of the country being sown within the normal planting window. Timely rains during the October-December period across the majority of the growing region gradually raised soil moisture levels, ensuring strong early season vegetative growth and development. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2006/01/brazil_12jan2006 Jan 12, 2006