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Commodity Intelligence Report
August 26, 2013

Canada Wheat Production Forecast at a 15-Year Record


Sufficient precipitations coupled with normal temperatures have advanced crop maturation despite the late start to the planting season. Warmer temperatures in the latter part of June and July promoted flowering throughout the western prairies. Satellite-derived analyses using MODIS/NDVI show crop development slightly higher than last year but above the 5-year average and above the record yields in 2011. Recent provincial reports from the major wheat producers, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba confirmed NDVI analysis. Both Alberta and Saskatchewan provincial reports rated 85 percent crop as good to excellent in their most recent crop reports dated August 16, 2013.

Despite a late planting start due to lingering snow cover, and below normal temperatures that have resulted in water logged fields throughout the western Prairies, USDA is estimating yields at 2.86 T/Ha, unchanged from a year ago.

Near record yield forecast is based on satellite-derived vegetation indices (MODIS NDVI) analysis that are reinforced by reports of advanced crop development.  Area is estimated at 10.3 million hectares, up 8.4 percent from 2012. This 8.4 percent increase is due to farmers rotating production from rapeseed crops to wheat. Wheat harvested area is expected to increase in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta by 17, 10, and 15 percent respectively. USDA estimates 2013/14 Canada wheat production at 29.5 million metric tons, up 8.5 percent from last year and a 15-year record.   


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Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on IPAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.

For more information contact Arnella Trent | | (202)720-0881
USDA-FAS, Office of Global Analysis

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